Methodology for England

This data release looks at the impact of the Government’s recent school funding announcements on individual schools and compares them with our baseline of school funding in 2015-16.

In this release, we have looked at Schools Block allocations for the years 2015-16 to 2018-19 and we have used the National Funding Formula indicative allocations for the years 2019-20 and 2020-21

We have compared these figures with the money allocated in 2015-16. This release covers 90% of school funding.

School Costs

National Audit Office base index

The NAO chart as a table:

We have used these figures for additional National Insurance costs and the Teachers’ Pension Scheme. We have used the Department for Education (DfE) document, Schools’ Costs 2018-19 to 2019-20, to update the table.

Annual pay award and salary increases

Teaching staff

The pay rise for 2016-17 was 1% for all teachers. For 2017-18 and 2018-19, the pay rise varied for teachers paid on the Main Pay Range (MPR), the Upper Pay Range (UPR) and the Leadership Pay Range (LPR).

Schools’ Costs 2018-19 to 2019-20 gives the average cost increase in teachers’ pay as 1.2% for 2017-18 academic year and 2.7% for 2018-19.

The Government accepted the recommendation of the School Teachers Review Body (STRB) to increase teacher pay by 2.75% in September 2019.

The Government has announced that it wishes to increase the pay of newly qualified teachers (NQTs) to at least £30,000 by September 2022.

We have estimated the cost of this policy. The teacher pay rise for NQTs amounts to 23% over three years or 7.2% a year. To determine the cost of this, we have made some assumptions:

  • Teachers on the Upper Pay Range and the Leadership Pay Range will receive 3% a year.
  • Teachers on M6 will receive 3% a year.
  • Teachers on M2 to M5 will receive a tapered increase, which will narrow differentials.

These aren’t the pay rises we think are necessary, which would be higher. But it would not be credible to increase starting pay by 7.2% per annum without at least 3% on upper and leadership spines. These are therefore, in our view, minimum pay rises. They lead to conservative estimates of the number of schools that will continue to face financial difficulties. We look forward to seeing the Government’s assessment of how much schools can afford to increase teacher pay in the Secretary of State’s remit letter to the School Teachers Review Body.

This gives the following average awards:

Non-teaching staff

The National Joint Council (NJC) sets the pay of support staff in maintained schools. We have assumed that this sets pay for all schools.

Schools’ Costs 2018-19 to 2019-20 gives the awards for support staff as 1.2% for 2017-18 and 3.1% for 2018-19. The award for 2016-17 was the same as 2017-18, they were part of a two-year settlement. The NJC awards for the last three years are below. Low paid workers make up a larger proportion of school support staff compared with all staff covered by the NJC, and pay awards have been larger for the lower paid. The result is that school support staff have received a larger than average percentage rise.

The increase in support staff pay has been driven by the increases in the National Living Wage (NLW). These will continue as the NLW must reach £9 per hour by April 2020. We have therefore assumed that support staff pay will increase at the same rate as for the last two years.

School pay index

Schools’ Costs 2018-19 to 2019-20 says: “The three primary categories of expenditure examined, with respective proportions of the total in 2016-17 (the latest full outturn year), are: teaching staff (52 per cent), non-teaching staff (29 per cent) and non-staff (19 per cent).”

Teachers’ pay year starts on 1 September, whereas support staff have their pay determined in line with the financial year. So, we have adjusted the teachers’ pay rise to fit the financial year by using 5/12ths from the previous academic year and 7/12ths from the current year.

Apprenticeship Levy

Schools’ Costs 2018-19 to 2019-20 gives the costs of the apprenticeship levy as 0.3% for 2017/18.

Non-staff costs

We used the general inflation to measure non-staff costs. We used the GDP deflator from HM Treasury. The non-staff costs are 19% of school costs.

School costs index

The overall increase in school costs since 2015 is 7.5%, this is 0.6% higher than the National Audit Office (NAO) anticipated and is due to the end of the 1% pay cap for public sector wage workers in 2018-19.

Overall, we expect school costs to rise by 3% a year for the next three years – this is only slightly higher than the average increase of 2.5% a year for the last four years.

 

 

 

Growing schools

We excluded schools that opened in 2015-16 from our analysis to ensure that the funding the school received for 2015-16 covered a full year.

Calculating school-by-school figures

This data release looks at the impact of the Government’s recent school funding announcements on individual schools and compares them with our baseline of school funding in 2015-16.

Funding included:

Funding not included:

  • High Needs funding
    This part funds the education, health and care (EHC) plans and statements for students at the school. Schools receive an allocation for general special education needs provision as part of the Schools Block. In total, there were 130,030 pupils with an EHC plan or statement in mainstream schools in 2019/20. Because of the relatively small number of pupils and potentially large individual allocation, it is difficult to see trends in funding on a school-by-school basis. Local authority averages are more appropriate.
  • Early Years
    Early Years funding covers the provision of:

    • the 15 hours entitlement for disadvantaged two-year olds;
    • the universal 15 hours entitlement for all three- and four-year olds;
    • the additional 15 hours entitlement for eligible working parents of three and four;
    • the Early Years Pupil Premium ;
    • the Disability Access Fund;
    • Maintained Nursery School supplementary funding.

    The allocations are not provided at school level. Many primary schools have nurseries and so this is an important revenue stream. The Maintained Nursery Schools supplementary fund provides 31% of the total funding for these schools and so it is vital to their continued existence. There are no plans to continue the fund beyond April 2020.

  • Pupil Premium
    Service Child Pupil Premium, Pupil Premium Plus for Looked After Children and Pupil Premium Plus for Post-LAC.
    These allocations are not published for individual schools because they are allocated to a small number of pupils and publishing school level data would jeopardise their privacy. In total, they cover 181,806 pupils for 2018/19 and the allocations amounted to £265,649,133 for 2018/19, less than 1% of the Dedicated Schools Grant.
    Pupil Premium allocations have not been published for 2019-20 or 2020-21. The total funding for 2018-19 amounted to £2.1bn. The Pupil Premium rates have not been increased with inflation since it was introduced in 2014.
  • Central Services Schools Block
    This funds services provided by local authorities to schools – services include behaviour support, school improvement and assessment management. It replaces the Education Services Grant (ESG) that was paid to local authorities for maintained schools and directly to academies. In 2014-15, the ESG was £1.02bn. The value of the Central Services Schools Block is £468m for 2019-20.
  • 16 to 19 allocations
    This funds sixth form teaching in secondary schools. The allocations for 2019-20 have yet to be published, let alone the allocation for 2020-21. Consequently, we do not have a data source to use.

Teachers’ Pay Grant

Schools have been given an additional grant to help pay for teacher pay rises in 2018 and 2019.

For 2018

The allocations for each school were published with the rest of the schools block figures. We took the rate per pupil in column AT and multiplied it by the number of students covered by schools block funding (5-16 year olds) in column AO.

For 2019

We updated the Teachers’ Pay Grant allocations with the additional Grant for September 2019 to March 2020. The rates are below. The pupil number covers 2 – 19 year olds, so we adjusted the number of pupils to those covered by the Schools Block, 5 to 16-year olds. This ensures a like-for-like comparison.

For 2020

We updated the Teachers’ Pay Grant allocations for 2019-20 by taking the rate for September 2019 to March 2020 and making it cover the whole year by dividing by 7 and multiplying by 12.

The pupil number covers 2 – 19 year olds, so we adjusted the number of pupils to those covered by the Schools Block, 5 to 16-year olds. This ensures a like-for-like comparison.

Calculation:

School data for 2015-16:

School data for 2016-17:

School data for 2017-18:

School data for 2018-19:

School data for 2019-20:

School data for 2020-21:

We converted the monies listed above into 2019-20 prices using the school costs index above. We then calculated the change in per pupil funding in real terms using 2015-16 as a baseline.

 

To calculate the change in per pupil funding:

Funding 2015-16 = Total Schools Block Allocation (Pre MFG) 2015-16
Pupils 2015-16 = Total Number of Pupils 2015-16

 

Change in per pupil funding 2016-17 =

Funding 2016-17   –   Funding 2015-16

Pupils 2016-17            Pupils 2015-16

Funding 2016-17 = Total Schools Block Allocation (Pre MFG) 2016-17
Pupils 2016-17 = Total Number of Pupils 2016-17

 

Change in per pupil funding 2017-18 =

Funding 2017-18   –   Funding 2015-16

Pupils 2017-18            Pupils 2015-16

Funding 2017-18= Total Schools Block Allocation (Pre MFG) 2017-18
Pupils 2017-18 = Total Number of Pupils 2017-18

 

Change in per pupil funding 2018-19 =

Funding 2018-19 + TPG 2018-19 rate  –   Funding 2015-16

Pupils 2018-19                                                Pupils 2015-16

Funding 2018-19 = Total Schools Block Allocation (Pre MFG) 2018-19
Pupils 2018-19 = Total Number of Pupils 2018-19
TPG 2018-19 rate = Teachers’ pay grant per pupil rate

 

Change in per pupil funding 2019-20 =

Funding 2019-20 + TPG 2019-20 rate  –   Funding 2015-16

Pupils 2019-20                                                Pupils 2015-16

Funding 2019-20 = Notional NFF funding in 2019-20
Pupils 2019-20 = 2018-19 pupil count
TPG 2019-20 rate = Updated Teachers’ pay grant per pupil rate

 

Change in per pupil funding 2020-21 =

Funding 2020-21  + TPG 2019-20 rate     –   Funding 2015-16

Pupils 2020-21                                                    Pupils 2015-16

Funding 2020-21 = Notional NFF funding in 2020-21
Pupils 2020-21 = 2019-20 pupil count
TPG 2020-21 rate = Updated Teachers’ pay grant per pupil rate

 

To calculate the shortfall in school income, we found the amount necessary to restore the per pupil funding in real terms to its level in 2015-16.

Funding shortfall 2016-17 = Change in per pupil funding 2016-17 x Total Number of Pupils 2016-17

Funding shortfall 2017-18 = Change in per pupil funding 2017-18 x Total Number of Pupils 2017-18

Funding shortfall 2018-19 = Change in per pupil funding 2018-19 x Total Number of Pupils 2018-19

Funding shortfall 2019-20 = Change in per pupil funding 2019-20 x Total Number of Pupils 2019-20

Funding shortfall 2020-21 = Change in per pupil funding 2020-21 x Total Number of Pupils 2020-21

When the Government talks about schools getting a “real terms” increase it uses a measure of inflation in the whole economy. But as Government well knows prices in some areas go up faster than others.

So on the schoolcuts.org.uk we instead use the Government’s own data to work out the reality for schools.

We have tracked back on: teacher and support staff pay rises; the increases Government has imposed on pensions, National Insurance and the Apprenticeship Levy; and we have used the Government measure of inflation for school resources. When we forecast forward we use conservative estimates for teacher pay rises – using the figures that the Government has already put in the public domain.

We are open. Our spreadsheet with all the data referenced above for 19,861 schools; summary tables; schools organised into local authority and constituency spreadsheets; and finally the source files referenced above can be viewed and downloaded at https://www.dropbox.com/sh/iv61p6oj7i15kn7/AACgHztmZTTsFH27SPqJj5IAa?dl=0.

The Government are now on their second baseline, 2019-20, previously they used 2017-18; whilst we have kept our baseline at 2015-16.

Our school cuts figures are about what schools actually have to spend – so they are much more relevant and accurate than average inflation figures.